Forecasters and climate experts warn that an impending “super” El Niño could become one of the strongest on record and bring major economic and social impacts across Africa. El Niño is associated with weather extremes that can include severe droughts in some regions and flooding and storms in others, depending on local conditions.
According to reporting that cites the African Development Bank, the combined damage risk for affected countries is estimated at about US$10 billion to US$20 billion. The same expert commentary links the worsening climate outlook to potential large-scale displacement, describing risks of mass migration from areas hardest hit by crop failures, water shortages, or extreme weather.
All sources emphasize that the risk is driven by ongoing warming in the Pacific Ocean and that if current trends continue, the El Niño event could intensify. The articles also note the broader concern that food systems and livelihoods may be disrupted by the resulting mix of drought and flooding hazards.
