A new analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) links the extreme weather conditions that fed this summer’s large Canadian wildfires to human-caused climate change. The WWA study finds that warming associated with industrial-era fossil fuel use roughly doubles the likelihood of “fire weather” patterns—conditions involving heat, low precipitation, humidity, and wind—in parts of Canada that were affected, including northwestern Ontario and the Northwest Territories.
The findings directly respond to statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has attributed the damage to poor wildfire management in Canada and has suggested possible punishment for Canada, while also noting smoke impacts across the border. The study’s authors argue the observed meteorological setup is not simply a management issue and that climate change makes the underlying conditions more likely.
The report has been released quickly and has not yet undergone peer review, according to coverage. The study compares event likelihoods to a counterfactual world without the warming seen since the industrial age and emphasizes the “climate fingerprint” approach used to estimate how much human influence alters risks.