The International Energy Agency (IEA) cuts its forecasts for both global oil demand and supply as the conflict linked to Iran intensifies, raising concerns about weaker consumption and tighter availability. In its updated outlook, it projects 2026 worldwide oil consumption will be about 2.5 million barrels per day lower than in 2025.
Several outlets report that the IEA also warns consumption may need to fall further in the coming months if the war continues to disrupt flows and force adjustments by consumers. Bloomberg and the other reports describe the risk of additional demand declines as lower supply conditions persist. NDTV adds that the IEA deepens this year’s expected demand shortfall by 940,000 barrels per day, bringing it to 2.5 million barrels per day.
On the supply side, Quartz reports the IEA expects global oil supply to fall by about 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, with a full recovery pushed to the following year. Across the coverage, the IEA’s forecast revisions are framed as another round of downward adjustments tied to ongoing geopolitical disruption and the impact on prices and market behavior.
