The IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction in economic output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026, citing the impact of the US-Israeli-led war against Iran on energy production and related activity. It expects output to rebound in 2027, with the region’s growth rising to 6.6%, though below pre-war projections. Bloomberg also reports that the IMF has downgraded growth for the Middle East and Central Asia this year due to the conflict.
Outlets describe the downturn as uneven across countries. The IMF says oil-exporting economies face greater strain because disruptions hit energy production and shipping, while oil importers are more resilient. Dawn reports that the forecast assumes the conflict eases in early 2027 and that trade gradually normalises, but warns that uncertainty remains high. Risks include further disruptions driving up energy prices and tighter external financial conditions.
Coverage aligns on the central IMF figures and the role of energy, shipping, and confidence. However, Bloomberg’s story also highlights that GCC countries are expected to see negative overall growth in 2026, with Oman as an exception, while the Dawn articles focus more broadly on Pakistan and the combined Middle East and North Africa region.
