The EU’s Copernicus climate monitor says 2026 is on track to be the second-hottest year on record, driven by a very strong El Niño pattern that boosts overall global warming signals. Multiple outlets report the assessment as “most likely” and based on monthly bulletin reporting by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Copernicus adds that global temperatures are “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, with a four-year average from 2023 to 2026 also expected to be above that Paris Agreement benchmark. Some coverage also links the outlook to near-term weather risks, including severe extremes such as droughts and floods, and notes that El Niño timing could affect how warm the year turns out.
One outlet’s version of the report also highlights the world’s warmest October on record, citing an average global surface air temperature about 1.75°C above pre-industrial times, and frames this as continuing a pattern of record warmth, including in oceans. Overall, outlets largely agree on the core forecast while varying in added context and risk emphasis.
