California expects significant tax revenue if major tech firms tied to the state—such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic—hold initial public offerings. CNBC reports that IPOs in the coming period could generate a “windfall,” but experts caution that the net impact may be smaller or more complex than anticipated. The Next Web similarly describes a high-potential upside, citing that SpaceX is valued around $2.5 trillion and that OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to pursue IPOs later this year at valuations near $1 trillion each. However, both outlets point to factors that can reduce the expected benefit. Modern compensation practices and how equity is structured can limit taxable events or shift when and where gains are realized. The sources also reference that prior public-market experiences, such as earlier large tech IPOs, show that actual state revenue can diverge from initial expectations. Overall, California’s forecast depends on the timing, structure and final execution of each IPO, as well as how stock ownership and compensation arrangements translate into taxable income for the state.