A Department for Transport (DfT) analysis indicates that the expected economic boost from a proposed third runway at Heathrow is far smaller than earlier figures, while the wider impacts could be negative. The DfT documents, prepared as ministers seek to accelerate Heathrow expansion on economic grounds, estimate that the runway would increase UK GDP by up to 0.05%. This is described as about 90% less than the previously cited 0.5% estimate. The analysis also suggests that, when accounting for broader trade-offs associated with expanding airport capacity, the net effect could reduce economic outcomes, with potential costs estimated at up to £62.5 billion. The information reflects a reassessment of the project’s value and the balance of benefits versus harms, rather than a change to the core proposal itself. The government’s approach is being presented alongside ongoing consultation and policy-setting processes for Heathrow expansion.