Australia’s most populous state, which is home to about 30% of the country’s population, is still forecast to run a budget surplus in 2027/28 despite weaker performance in a key revenue area. The reporting points to high interest rates as the main factor reducing that revenue driver, affecting the state’s financial outlook. Even with this headwind, the state’s latest projections indicate it remains on track to deliver a surplus by the end of the 2027/28 financial year. Across the sources provided, the central elements are consistent: the state population share, the timing of the projected surplus, and the role of high interest rates in pressuring revenues. No alternative fiscal outcomes or specific alternative scenarios are described in the excerpts. The information therefore focuses on the continued expectation of a surplus in 2027/28 while acknowledging that elevated borrowing and market conditions are weighing on at least one significant stream of income.