Galaxy Research reduces its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s passage in 2026 to 50%, according to reports from Decrypt, Cointelegraph, and The Block. The firm says the probability change reflects a shrinking Senate floor schedule as the chamber approaches the August recess and faces tighter time for debate and voting. All three sources attribute the assessment to Galaxy’s view that there is limited progress in ongoing negotiations, which further lowers the likelihood of the bill advancing on the expected timeline. The updated odds also indicate Galaxy’s earlier assessment has weakened over the past weeks, with the firm now describing the outcome as roughly a coin flip for 2026. While the reports focus on Galaxy’s internal probability model rather than new legislative text, they align on the central drivers: narrowing Senate calendar constraints and a lack of sufficient movement in talks. The outlets do not present competing probability estimates from other firms in their summaries, focusing instead on Galaxy’s revised outlook.