Markets were pulled in two directions today: geopolitics lifted commodity profits while investor risk appetite kept surging. Shell posted a 24% jump in quarterly underlying earnings to $6.92 billion as conflict tied to Iran pushed oil prices higher, underscoring how quickly global tensions can feed corporate results. Yet the broader mood was unmistakably bullish. Japan’s Nikkei vaulted to fresh records above 61,000, powered by earnings optimism and improving sentiment around the Middle East. In private markets, prediction platform Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Coatue-led round that doubled its valuation to $22 billion, a sign that investors still see huge upside in regulated event trading despite regulatory scrutiny. Crypto also stayed in expansion mode, with Kraken parent Payward agreeing to buy Hong Kong payments firm Reap for $600 million, while satellite intelligence group Hawkeye 360 raised $416 million in a strong IPO debut.