Kalshi, a prediction market exchange, is launching a pilot program that allows trading on outcomes related to biopharmaceutical clinical trials and FDA regulatory decisions, according to multiple reports. STAT describes Kalshi’s move as expanding prediction markets into the biopharma sector, including bets tied to clinical trial results and approvals or decisions by the FDA. A separate report from PYMNTS says Kalshi and public intelligence company AppliedXL launched the pilot through a press release dated July 16.
PYMNTS reports that the program includes example contracts connected to a specific Phase 3 trial (AR1001’s POLARIS-AD Phase 3 trial) and that contracts are also tied to regulatory decisions. Both outlets frame the effort as a way to translate public information and expert analysis into market-based predictions. The sources do not provide further details on pricing, participation limits, or the full list of covered drugs or trials in the materials provided.
