A new poll indicates Labour’s candidate Bev Craig is on track to retain control of Greater Manchester in the mayoral election to replace Andy Burnham. The results, reported as showing the first-round vote, place Craig ahead of Reform UK’s Sian Astley by 14 points, with 38% for Craig compared with 24% for Astley. The poll suggests that Craig would also win a head-to-head contest in the second round: if voters were redistributed in a two-candidate scenario, Craig is shown leading 62% to 38%. The figures are attributed to YouGov and are framed around voting scheduled for 30 July. The reporting reflects a consistent view across the outlets provided: Craig holds a clear lead in the initial round and would maintain that advantage in a direct matchup against Astley. The overall outcome described is conditional on the poll’s estimates rather than a confirmed election result.