Goldman Sachs says Brent crude could rise to above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions continue through the Strait of Hormuz, and possibly extend to other Gulf shipping routes such as the Red Sea. The bank’s base case assumes Middle East tensions ease, under which Brent is expected to average around $80 in the fourth quarter and about $75 next year. Multiple outlets report that analysts leading the view, including Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven, describe the upside risk as “tilted to the upside” because shipping disruptions reduce Persian Gulf flows and leave the market more exposed to supply shocks. Reports cite renewed US-Iran tensions and additional concerns about attacks or threats affecting maritime traffic, including warnings related to Iran-backed Houthi forces. Some coverage also notes that global inventories are lower than in prior periods, which can limit the market’s ability to absorb disruptions. While prices have already rebounded to the low $90s and around $100 at times amid the escalation, Goldman frames $120+ as a scenario rather than its central forecast, tied to how long chokepoints remain disrupted.