Goldman Sachs says Brent crude prices could rise to more than $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist. Multiple outlets report that Goldman’s analysts assess a scenario in which shipping traffic through the waterway remains affected, with the bank not treating this as its base case. One report cites Goldman’s view that escalation in the Middle East and a reduction in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below pre-war levels are contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices. Another outlet reports that Goldman expects oil prices to average around $100 a barrel next year if disruptions continue through the strait.
The reports also attribute current market volatility to renewed fighting involving the United States and Iran and to concerns about the Houthis potentially threatening or disrupting shipments tied to Saudi Arabia. Together, the coverage indicates that the $120 outlook is conditional on prolonged logistical disruptions rather than a central expectation, and it frames the risk as tied to how much the Strait of Hormuz flow disruptions persist.
