World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill warns that a prolonged Middle East conflict could significantly weaken the global economy. Under the World Bank’s worst-case scenario, global growth could fall to about 1.3% in 2026. The warning is tied to the broader economic effects of an extended war, including higher prices and disruptions that affect trade, investment, and supply chains.
In the scenario described, inflation risks also rise. Gill cautions that persistent conflict could push global inflation to around 4.5% in the worst case. The reports frame these estimates as part of the World Bank’s assessment of how continued geopolitical instability could spill over into economic conditions worldwide.
Both sources emphasize that the outlook depends on how long and how intensely the conflict continues, with the cited figures representing a negative scenario rather than a baseline forecast.
