Macquarie Ltd analysts warn that oil markets could return to oversupply before year-end, linked to prospects for a renewed U.S.-Iran deal. The note cites the political timing for Washington to make progress on ending the Iran conflict, pointing to fewer than 100 days remaining before the U.S. midterm elections. Analysts say any developments that reduce disruptions or increase the likelihood of additional supply flowing back to market could outweigh balancing forces and tilt prices toward a surplus scenario. The reports characterize the risk as a market reversion rather than a certainty, suggesting that expectations around negotiations and their impact on production and trade would be central to near-term supply-demand dynamics. Both outlets present the same core view from Macquarie: the combination of negotiation pressure tied to the election calendar and potential changes to supply conditions raises the possibility that the market could shift back toward an oversupplied state before the end of the year.