Multiple outlets report that US climate forecasters say the probability of an El Niño conditions developing is rising. In an updated assessment dated 14 May, the US climate agency indicates an 82% chance that El Niño conditions take hold at some point between May and July. The reports also say there is a 96% likelihood that El Niño develops by December, based on the same forecast. While the coverage notes the possibility of a “super” El Niño, neither outlet’s provided text specifies that such an intensity will definitely occur—only that development odds are high. The forecasts frame the phenomenon as approaching during the Northern Hemisphere’s late spring and early summer period. Together, the sources present consistent timing and probability figures from the US National Weather Service/US climate forecasting, emphasizing that the main window for El Niño onset is May to July and the key development target is by December. The reports reflect updated likelihood estimates, not confirmation of final intensity.