ExxonMobil and Chevron warn that fuel prices are likely to remain elevated even if crude oil prices fall, citing tight global refining capacity affected by wars in Russia and the Middle East. The companies say the ongoing conflicts reduce or disrupt refining output and constrain the supply of refined products, which can keep retail and wholesale fuel prices supported despite declines in upstream oil costs. Both firms’ comments point to a disconnect between crude and finished fuel markets: when refiners face disruptions and replacement supplies are limited, the cost of producing gasoline, diesel, and other fuels can stay high. The warnings emphasize the broader effect of geopolitical instability on energy infrastructure and logistics, including the flow of crude and refined products through global networks. While the exact timing and magnitude of price movements are not specified, the message is that the refined-products shortage is a key driver of fuel prices and may persist into the coming months, even if oil becomes cheaper.