U.S. expands and then pauses “Project Freedom” amid UAE-Iran attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruption

US Military Hasn't Identified A Single Confirmed Mine In Strait Of Hormuz, Officials Tell NBC Just a few hours after President Trump boasted that the US Navy had detonated "numerous" Iranian sea mines, NBC News reported that, even after three months of warfare, the US military has yet to confirm the presence of even a single mine in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.  Citing two US officials and a "person familiar with the matter," NBC said relentless searches of the waterway by aerial and undersea drones haven't found any confirmed mines, merely finding some objects that might be mines. “If anything, the threat has been far less robust than we had feared,” the person "familiar with the matter" told NBC.  The USS Santa Barbara, a littoral combat ship, is configured for minesweeping duties (Navy photo) Around the time Trump decided to join Israel in launching a war on Iran in the midst of ongoing negotiations in which Tehran had offered major concessions along the lines of what Trump is demanding today, US intelligence officials believed Iran had placed mines on the south side of the strait ahead of the shooting or shortly thereafter, said NBC. Allies had likewise reportedly concluded that Iran had deployed sea mines. The mine menace was said to be so formidable that, in April, a Pentagon official speaking to US legislators in a classified session said that fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months.   In a Friday morning social media post in which he foreshadowed a potential ceasefire agreement that would end restrictions on commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump boasted that the US Navy had "removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers."  The NBC report seemingly contradicts multiple CBS News reports. Most recently, on May 19, the outlet reported that US intelligence had identified "at least 10 mines" in the strait. Back in March CBS reported that an official said there were at least a dozen, while another one said fewer than a dozen. CBS attributed this information to officials who weren't named.  The potential presence of mines has weighed heavily on the minds of ship owners and --more importantly -- shipping-insurance underwriters who've terminated existing coverage and offered new protection at prohibitively expensive rates. Of course, mines aren't the only weapon at Iran's disposal: drones and missiles can wreak havoc as well.  The international community must condemn Iran for filling the Strait of Hormuz with mines and charging tolls for the passage of commercial vessels. pic.twitter.com/rageLdYqvi — Ambassador Mike Waltz (@USAmbUN) May 7, 2026 Last week, there were reports that the UK Royal Navy was making moves for a potential deployment of hundreds of sailors on a mine-sweeping mission in the strait. However, as we emphasized, AP reported that this potential deployment would only proceed if a peace agreement were reached, suggesting it's principally a gesture meant to placate Trump, who has pestered NATO allies to help remedy the massive, strait-centered economic disruption caused by the US-Israeli decision to launch a war on Iran over a nuclear weapon program that almost certainly does not exist.  In March, Trump ranted against nations that were anxious over the shutting of a waterway that transports about 20% of the world's petroleum, in addition to about a third of international fertilizer trade: "Go to the strait and just take it. You have to start learning how to fight for yourself. Go get your own oil." Days later, he said, “The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it.” Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 13:25

US President Donald Trump said on May 29 that Iran must commit to never developing a nuclear weapon and ensure unrestricted shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz, while indicating that discussions involving Tehran, Washington and international agencies were moving towards a possible understanding on key security issues in the region.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz should remain open without any restrictions or tolls for commercial shipping traffic in both directions. He also claimed that naval restrictions imposed earlier in the region would be lifted, allowing stranded ships to resume movement.Trump further said any water mines present in the strategic waterway would be removed or destroyed in coordination with Iranian authorities. He claimed that US naval operations had already neutralised several mines in the region.Also read | US inflation rises to 3.8% in April, highest level in nearly 3 years"The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to," Trump's post read."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" he signed off.The remarks come amid heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia and renewed global concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, maritime security and crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, handling a significant share of global crude and LNG shipments.Any disruption in the waterway has historically triggered volatility in international oil markets and raised concerns among major energy-importing nations, including India.Also read | US goods trade deficit narrows in April on strong exportsTrump also referred to Iran’s enriched nuclear material, saying the stockpile buried underground after a previous US B-2 bomber strike would be excavated and destroyed under international supervision. He said the process would involve close coordination between the United States, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).According to Trump, no financial exchange would take place as part of the proposed arrangement until further decisions are taken. He added that several other issues had also been agreed upon, though he did not elaborate on details.The former US president said he would meet officials in the Situation Room before taking a final decision on the matter.The comments assume significance as tensions between the US and Iran have remained elevated over Tehran’s nuclear activities, sanctions and regional security concerns. Recent developments in the Middle East have also intensified fears of escalation that could impact global trade routes and energy prices.International crude oil markets have remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts have warned that any prolonged uncertainty in the region could affect fuel prices, shipping costs and supply chains globally.India, which imports a majority of its crude oil requirements, closely monitors developments in the Gulf region as volatility in oil prices has direct implications for inflation, fuel costs and the country’s trade balance.

'Brent will shoot up': US energy executives warn of massive oil supply crunch Submitted by Sean Mathews on Thu, 05/28/2026 - 21:31 Energy executives say the world is weeks away from oil hitting $150 per barrel, with government and private industry reserves depleted Iranians drive past a billboard featuring US President Donald Trump and the Strait of Hormuz, erected in Valiasr Square in Tehran, Iran, on 28 May 2026 (AFP) Off Executives from the largest US energy companies warned on Thursday that oil prices are likely to spike this summer, as the buffers the US and other western countries used to mitigate the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz run dry. “We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see [the] price shoot up,” Neil Chapman, a senior vice president at ExxonMobil, said on Thursday at a conference organised by the investment bank, Bernstein. “I think dated Brent, most people, well, a model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160,” he added. Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth warned at the same event that the “buffers and the shock absorbers” that have kept oil prices in check “are being steadily drawn down”. “Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” he said. “If this goes on for long, it tips us into an economic slowdown or a recession,” he added. Brent, the international benchmark, was trading at around $93 per barrel on Thursday. Brent has fallen about 16 percent this month amid optimism that the US and Iran can strike a deal to end the war. Impending deal The White House said on Thursday that it had reached a 60-day ceasefire extension to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that is awaiting US President Donald Trump’s approval, as well as that of senior Iranian officials. There have been a series of reports in the US and Israeli media that the two sides are close to a deal that has failed to materialise. Iran will control Strait of Hormuz 'forever', former senior US official says Read More » Many energy experts expected a bigger bump in prices as a result of Iran and the US’s competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global energy flowed before the war. The market has been cushioned by a sizable drop in Chinese oil imports, freeing up barrels of oil, and a massive release of inventory from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US has drawn down 172 million barrels of oil from the reserve, bringing it to its lowest level in forty years. Industry reserves have also dropped to record lows. “Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all run down. And running down those inventories has mitigated or offset…the impact,” Chapman said, according to a transcript of his talk on social media. Even with the releases, US gas prices have surged by about 50 percent since the US-Israeli attack on Iran. And the US, due to its massive energy industry, has been less impacted. East Asian countries are facing a severe supply crunch because they are more dependent on Gulf energy. The price paid for a barrel of oil in Asia is far above the spot price, and is hovering around $150 per barrel, experts say. Georges Elhedery, the CEO of HSBC Bank, said last month that the price paid for a barrel of oil has reached as high as $286 in Sri Lanka. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Gulf states like Bahrain and Qatar have sustained damage to their energy facilities. Wirth, the CEO of Chevron, said that repairing infrastructure in the Middle East would cost billions of dollars. War on Iran News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

Why Oil Markets Could Face A Generational Shock This Summer If US-Iran Talks Fail President Trump is signaling "make a good deal" or walk away with no deal at all. Overnight hostilities around the Hormuz maritime chokepoint highlight just how fragile the ceasefire remains as Washington and Tehran try to solidify a peace deal to end the conflict. The timing of a peace deal is very important because, as we have warned readers, a no-deal scenario would collide with a deteriorating oil-supply backdrop by summer, when global buffers and floating storage begin to run down, and SPR releases become less effective in offsetting lost supply from the Gulf region. Building on UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn's note from Friday titled "When The Oil Buffers Run Out," Brookings' Robin Brooks and Ben Harris outline in a note that oil markets could face a massive price shock by mid-July as temporary supply buffers run dry. There appears to be consensus building among Wall Street analysts at Goldman, JPMorgan, UBS, and many other desks that if the Hormuz chokepoint is not reopened in the near term, an energy cliff may materialize in early summer. The Brookings analysts say crude prices have so far been depressed by three factors: trade rerouting, inventory drawdowns, and market expectations that the U.S.-Iran war would end quickly. "The bottom line is that the supply shortfall will build in the coming months as temporary buffers are depleted. And if markets grow increasingly pessimistic over an eventual resolution to the impasse in the strait, oil prices may rise materially higher," the Brookings analysts said. However, they warned that the three factors capping crude prices are fading. Russian floating stocks are likely depleted by the end of April; Iranian floating stocks are expected to be gone by the end of May; and the IEA emergency oil release is projected to be exhausted by July 9. They continued, "It is fair to say that the scale of the supply shortfall is now well-known to markets. But the timeline on which temporary buffers run out and how this interacts with prices is of critical importance." "This interaction means non-linear outcomes in prices—in other words, sharp price spikes—are possible the longer this conflict is expected to take. The potential for non-linear outcomes grows the longer oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely encumbered," the analysts ended the note. Shifting back to UBS analyst Kapteyn's note last week on oil buffers, he warned, "Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted." He continued: This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading "only" around $105/bbl. Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction: The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption. At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl. There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more: First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall. Second, as the "easy" adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices. The chart highlights some scary combinations. For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl. What we are outlining here is a growing consensus across Wall Street: a no-deal outcome between Washington and Tehran would represent a severe risk for energy markets, with the critical point of no return by early summer. That is when the temporary buffers suppressing crude prices, including emergency stockpile releases, floating storage, rerouted flows, and hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp, begin to lose effectiveness. Once those offsets are exhausted, the market would likely be forced to slap a new war risk premium more aggressively, removing the current ceiling on Brent and WTI. JPMorgan analysts recently warned about this ... ... the clock is ticking for Washington and Tehran to get a deal done or risk chaos far beyond energy markets that would spill over into shipping, then the global economy. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 12:20

Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous: That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off the coast of Iran is marked by mutual blockades. Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States has imposed a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports. These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results. Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law. READ: How Iran is wielding the Strait of Hormuz as leverage Fragile negotiations between the US […]...Keep on reading: US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?

It's Not Iran Trapping Ships In The Hormuz, It's The Insurance Risk Is the Iranian regime the immediate barrier to oil tankers seeking to exit the Strait of Hormuz, or is it fear of liability that's keeping shipping companies at bay? The damage actually done to Iran's military and weaponry by US strikes is a matter of hot debate, but one aspect of the strikes that is relatively easy to confirm is the destruction to Iran's navy.  US Central Command indicates that around 92% of Iran's naval capacity has been sunk to the bottom of the ocean including at least 10 small submarines.  So far, the regimes ability to actually hit and destroy US ships is next to nil. The much vaunted "mosquito fleet" of small and fast attack boats has proven to be ineffective against US operations in the Strait, with some naval ships traveling directly through the Hormuz without much trouble.  At bottom, Iran has no ability to enforce an effective "blockade" on the strait.  The regime's containment is mostly restricted to the use of drones, which can be countered with US technology (jamming and counter-drone operations).  But Iran also understands that the volatility of the cargo and the insurance risk is the greater element working in their favor.  In other words, no matter how effective US forces have been in destroying Iran's assets in the strait, the financial risk to oil shippers remains.  Insurance companies are the Trump Administration's biggest obstacle, not Iran's military.  Tankers will not budge because there are too many coverage gaps, including the dreaded environmental coverage gap. Pre-conflict, the insurance premium baseline for the Hormuz was extremely low (0.25% of a ships total value).  Today, those premiums have spiked from 2% to 10%.  Major insurers including P&I clubs like Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard and London P&I issued cancellation notices for war-risk coverage in the Persian Gulf area, effective in March. Reinsurers pulled back, forcing repricing.  The costs are far too high and the risk outweighs the reward.  Traffic in the strait dropped by 80% almost immediately because of the loss of insurance.  This created a self-reinforcing problem: Even with limited US naval guidance ("Project Freedom") or occasional Iranian-coordinated passages, commercial operators avoid the risk without affordable coverage. Industry brokers and shipping executives assert that the costs cannot be managed, and they have decided to adopt a "wait and see" approach on negotiations. Marcus Baker, Global Head of Marine, Cargo & Logistics at Marsh notes that tankers remain “insurable, if you’re prepared to take the risk...” but he emphasized the massive cost barrier for most operators.   Interestingly, Iran's latest negotiation salvo on the strait focuses on their own crypto-based insurance scheme.  It effectively amounts to a "protection racket", forcing companies to buy insurance from the regime in exchange for safe passage.  However, there have been few takers; most shippers don't trust Iran to ensure the safety of their vessels.    The obvious first solution would be for the Trump Administration to offer US backed coverage for tankers traversing the Hormuz.  This already happened in March. Early in the war President Trump directed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region.  A maritime reinsurance facility was established offering up to $40 billion for hull & machinery, cargo, and in some expansions, liability risks. It partners with major insurers like Chubb and AIG. The alternative coverage is reasonable, but there are some problems.  The US is not offering full coverage which includes environmental damages should an oil spill take place, along with other gaps which prevent shippers from taking the deal.  It also does not yet guarantee full escort protection for tankers traversing the strait, a factor which has been up in the air due to negotiations.  Analysts at Moody's note that US government-backed coverage will not fully restart flows without broader liability protections. In other words, if the Trump Administration wants to get ships moving out of the strait anytime soon, they will have to amend their insurance to cover all gaps including environmental risk.  And, they will have to provide a reliable escort system.  This can be easily accomplished with Littoral combat ships with anti-mine and anti-air capability and anti-drone tech that are able to operate in shallow and narrow waters.  These ships have some of the most advanced automated anti-drone systems in the world.   Accurate details on negotiations with the Iranian regime are sparse.  Iran's propaganda operations on social media often contradict their own diplomatic statements.  It's important to keep in mind that the regime is concerned with looking weak to their own population, and the constant posturing online is often designed to keep their citizenry in line rather than frighten the US. There are also questions as to who is actually in charge.  Iran's new "supreme leader" has not been seen alive since the decapitation strikes.  Theories suggest the IRGC has reanimated the corpse of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei through propaganda as a means to maintain a semblance of government authority.  It may be that no one is really at the wheel in Iran and that current negotiations are nothing more than a stalling tactic while the remaining officials vie for power.  A deal may be close, but alternatives need to be considered.  All other factors aside (including Iran's stockpile of nearly 1000 pounds of 60% enriched Uranium which they openly admit to having), the Strait of Hormuz may require solutions outside of a deal with Iran.  And, those ships simply will not move without some impressive financial guarantees from the US.         Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 20:30