EY’s latest economic outlook warns that the UK is at risk of recession if disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persists into 2027. Both sources say the risk is tied to the impact that continued closure or significant disruption in the strait would have on global oil and gas supplies and prices. Rising energy costs would feed through into consumer prices and broader economic conditions. The reports also highlight inflation pressure: EY projects that inflation could rise to 6.4% if higher oil and gas prices are sustained. The outlets frame the warning as conditional, linked to how long any disruption lasts and how strongly energy price effects transmit into the UK economy. Overall, the coverage indicates that the UK’s growth outlook becomes more vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond the near term, with inflation potentially higher alongside weaker economic performance.