Two analyses draw on New Zealand drought history to assess potential impacts from a warming climate. Both reports emphasize that New Zealand’s vulnerability matters because drought strongly affects agriculture and water resources. The Conversation argues that some of the country’s most severe droughts occurred before 1950, when monitoring and records were more limited. This means the drought experience captured in more recent, better-instrumented periods may not represent the full range of past extremes, and could therefore understate what may happen in future decades. Phys.org similarly highlights that drought is among the most serious consequences associated with a warming planet, particularly for an agricultural economy. Taken together, the articles suggest that projecting future drought risk using only modern observations could miss worst-case scenarios reflected in earlier events. The reports focus on the implication that future “big” droughts may be more severe than people might expect based solely on recent history, underscoring the need to consider longer-term patterns when evaluating risk.