Michigan Democrats vote in Senate primary testing progressive vs moderate approach to Israel

US Democrats are awaiting results from their marquee primary in Michigan on Wednesday morning, with the contest between a left-wing insurgent and an establishment-backed congresswoman becoming a proxy war over Israel, electability, and the future of the national party. Hours after polls closed, leftist Abdul El-Sayed held a narrow lead over centrist Haley Stevens, with the race too close to call. With 95 per cent of votes counted, NBC was the only major US media outlet to call the race as of 6:50am (3:50pm PKT), projecting a win for El-Sayed. The winner will face former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters, a race central to the party’s difficult effort to win control of the Senate. Democrats must defend Michigan while gaining four Republican-held seats to control the upper chamber, making the primary more than an ideological exercise in a state that has swung between the two parties in recent national elections. Analysts say the results will show whether a current leftist surge among Democrats can move beyond safe seats and win in battlegrounds with national consequences — or whether Michigan’s Democratic establishment can still hold the line. El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director backed by leftist leaders Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has cast himself as a working-class fighter willing to confront corporations, party leaders and increasingly unpopular pro-Israel donors. Stevens, a four-term lawmaker from the Detroit suburbs, has built her campaign around experience, manufacturing and electability. She is supported by establishment figures from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. ‘Off the hook’ Several recent polls have shown El-Sayed ahead, raising the prospect of the left’s biggest victory yet in a primary season marked by a series of anti-establishment wins. His allies say the campaign’s volunteer energy proves progressives can build a statewide coalition without relying on Washington’s traditional donor network. Stevens is counting on support that she says may be under-represented in opinion polls — from Black voters, older Democrats and people without college degrees. “We’re still getting a ton of votes. We’re firing people up,” she told reporters after casting her ballot in Birmingham, a half-hour drive northwest of Detroit. “My phone’s been ringing off the hook with people who are excited to go to the polls, to see a campaign like mine go forward for November.” The bitterest divide has been over the United States’ deep support for Israel. Stevens has defended continued military backing for the country and rejected accusations that Israel committed genocide in Gaza. El-Sayed has called for an end to unconditional US aid, attacked the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobby group, and said Israel should not exist specifically as a Jewish state. ‘Brutality’ AIPAC spending and outside advertising totaling $90 million — in a state with a large Arab-American population and deep anger over the Gaza conflict — has made Michigan another national test of the pro-Israel lobby’s ability to shape Democratic primaries. The candidates have traded increasingly personal attacks, with El-Sayed calling Stevens “the least capable candidate in America”, while she has accused him of blaming his problems on Jewish Americans. Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, who has remained neutral, warned that the “brutality” and “ugliness” of the campaign could make it harder for Democrats to unite afterwards. Michigan voted narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2024, even as Democrat Elissa Slotkin edged Rogers in that year’s Senate race, underscoring both the state’s competitiveness and the risks of a divided party. “The Democratic establishment threw everything it had at Abdul El-Sayed. If he wins, the reverberations will be felt far outside of Michigan,” Dan Pfeiffer, a senior aide in Barack Obama’s White House turned political analyst and podcast host, posted on X. “This would be the second time this cycle that a Schumer-backed candidate was rejected by the voters, which will raise even more questions about whether he and his operation have lost touch with the Democratic base.”

Washington: Polls began closing in Michigan on Tuesday in a Democratic U.S. Senate primary that has emerged as one of the clearest tests yet of the direction of ​the Democratic Party ahead of the 2028 presidential race.The contest pits Abdul ​El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official who has called for ending unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel, against U.S. Representative Haley ​Stevens, a moderate backed by Democratic leaders and pro-Israel groups.Polls began closing at 8 p.m. ET (0000 GMT) and will continue closing across the state for another hour.The race is the latest battleground between progressives and moderates over U.S. support for Israel, an issue that has played out in primaries nationwide this year. But unlike contests in liberal bastions, this is a statewide race in a critical Midwestern swing state ahead of November's midterms - ‌a seat Democrats must win ⁠in the ⁠fight for Senate control.The outcome could offer the clearest signal yet of whether Democratic voters are more receptive to an anti-establishment message hostile to Israel and big money in politics, or a more moderate approach supportive of Israel, according to ​analysts and party strategists interviewed by Reuters.Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under President Barack Obama, said the primary was a bellwether for Democrats' ideological future and could shape how ​their 2028 presidential candidates approach relations with Israel."This will help inform them about how tough to be on Israel," he said. "It's teed up to be a pretty clear choice."Israel's favorability rating among Democrats fell from 59% in 2018 to 22% in May, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.But the primary is also a test of broader voter frustrations over economic concerns and the party establishment, Democratic ​strategists said.An El-Sayed win would underscore the anger fueling demand for new leadership - and the appeal of his call to ⁠reinvest taxpayer ‌dollars at home rather than in Israel's war in Gaza.A Stevens win would signal she made her case despite anti-establishment headwinds, with economic concerns and ​the desire to beat Republicans ​outweighing Israel."Either way, Democratic leaders shouldn't ignore the anger at the status quo fueling El-Sayed's campaign or assume a Stevens win lets the party ⁠off the hook," Democratic strategist Karen Finney said.Voters in Michigan, Virginia and Washington state will also be deciding ​on U.S. House candidates in Democratic primaries on Tuesday, including a handful that could decide if the party retakes the ​lower chamber. Four of those races are considered general election toss-ups.In two Virginia districts expected to be competitive in November, Democrats nominated former U.S. Representative Elaine Luria and Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor.PROGRESSIVES AND MODERATES TAKE SIDESThe winner of the Senate primary will face former Republican Representative Mike Rogers, a vocal supporter of Israel in a state President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2024.El-Sayed has been endorsed by and held rallies with two high-profile progressives: Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.Analysts say one significant factor in his favor is that Michigan is home to some of the country's largest Arab American communities, where hostility to Israel runs deep.Recent polls show El-Sayed leading by an average of 8 percentage points, although ‌one Detroit News survey in early July had Stevens up by 7 percentage points.El-Sayed supports progressive causes like universal healthcare, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and getting corporate money out of politics. He told Reuters in an interview that ending unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel was not just a ​human rights issue, but about ​helping American families."Gaza and Israel is an affordability ⁠issue. I would rather spend our money on healthcare and schools and infrastructure here at home rather than bombing other people elsewhere."El-Sayed said he had focused on issues affecting Michigan voters, while Democratic leaders had sought to recast the race as a national referendum on the party's future.Stevens and her allies argue that she would make a stronger general election candidate ​against Rogers because she is more likely to appeal to independents in a race expected to be decided at the margins.Stevens has been backed by the party establishment, including Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, and Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan's two-term governor.In emailed responses to Reuters, Stevens largely declined to answer questions about Israel or the money she has taken from pro-Israel groups, including over $30 million from the main super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of Washington's most influential foreign-policy lobbying organizations."No one influences my vote other than the people of Michigan," she said.Stevens has been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including in a July debate. "Mr. Netanyahu has not made us safer, has not brought us closer to peace. And he's endangered Jews here in America and around the world," she said.