India’s southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on May 26, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD’s forecast points to an onset date that is earlier than the usual timing, with the department stating that the monsoon is arriving about eight days ahead of normal. IMD also notes that last year the monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, which was the earliest arrival since 2009, and that its operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala have generally matched observed outcomes over the past two decades, with the exception of 2015.
While the onset date is forecast, multiple reports emphasize that an earlier start does not necessarily mean adequate seasonal rainfall. IMD is projecting “below normal” precipitation, citing factors that can affect monsoon strength, including El Niño conditions. IMD indicates that its outlook is based on statistical modeling used in operational forecasts. Overall, the reports converge on the expected May 26 arrival date for Kerala and on the caution that rainfall volume for the season may not meet normal levels.
