US hiring and labor-market data released for July lead markets to cut their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to reports citing rate-futures pricing. After the jobs report, futures markets price less than even odds of a September increase in the Fed’s target rate, with the probability of tightening falling versus levels seen before the data. One account notes that the likelihood of a rate hike drops to about 43.9% after the report, from about 57% beforehand, based on LSEG data. The chance the Fed holds rates at its next meeting rises to about 60.4% from about 43.2% prior to the report. The underlying data shows the US economy loses 23,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate edges down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June. Analysts cited in the coverage say the unemployment decline is influenced by fewer workers participating in the labor force, which makes the job-market picture less robust than the headline unemployment figure suggests. The reports also reference a prior week of commentary from Fed officials about tackling stubborn inflation, but the new data shifts near-term market expectations about Fed policy.
US jobs data lowers odds of September Fed rate hike, futures markets show
US hiring and labor-market data released for July lead markets to cut their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to reports citing rate-futures pricing. After the jobs...
- July US hiring data shows a decline of 23,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%.
- Futures markets reduce the probability of a September Fed rate hike after the jobs report.
- LSEG data cited in the coverage shows September tightening odds fall to about 43.9% from around 57% before the report.
- The probability of the Fed holding rates next month rises to about 60.4% versus 43.2% before the report.
- Commentary about stubborn inflation from Fed officials earlier in the week contrasts with the more dovish shift in market pricing after the employment data.
U.S. hiring data for July drove financial markets to lower forecasts for the U.S. central bank raising its interest rate target at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, after a week in which several Fed officials made the case for lifting rates to tackle stubborn inflation. Futures markets put at less than even odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting and are split on where the Fed will end up by the end of the year after data showed the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July amid a modest decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent from June's 4.2 percent, although that shift was driven by the less positive move of workers out of the labor force. The downward shift in hiring conditions pointed to the possibility that the relative stability of the job market may be more vulnerable than thought. The rate futures market has now priced in just a 43.9 percent chance of Fed tightening in September, compared with 57 percent before the jobs report, LSEG data shows. The probability that the Fed will hold rates next month rose to 60.4 percent versus 43.2 percent just before t
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