The International Energy Agency (IEA) cuts its 2026 oil demand forecast again, citing ongoing disruption linked to the continued shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. In the latest monthly update, the IEA projects global oil demand will fall by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, reflecting weaker expected consumption.
The IEA had previously forecast a smaller decline in its prior monthly report released in July, when it expected demand to slump by 1.0 million barrels per day. The change indicates the IEA is adjusting estimates as conditions affecting supply and trade in the region persist. While the specific mechanics of how the disruption affects market flows are not detailed in the provided excerpts, the shared emphasis across outlets is that the Hormuz closure remains a key factor behind the revised demand outlook.
Both sources present the forecast cut as a further downgrade from the July baseline and frame it as a response to sustained geopolitical and logistical disruption in the region.
