An analysis by the University of Cape Town (UCT) finds that alcohol consumption in South Africa increases even as South Africans get poorer. The research comes as South Africa’s National Treasury considers higher alcohol taxes, and it challenges claims made by the alcohol industry about illicit sales.
According to the reporting, the study disputes an industry estimate that the illicit alcohol market expands by 55%. Outlets citing the UCT work say the underlying numbers do not align, implying that official or comparable measures may not support the magnitude of illicit growth asserted by industry representatives.
While the articles focus on different elements—poverty trends, consumption patterns, and tax policy—they converge on the core finding that consumption rises as household financial pressure increases. They also agree that the UCT analysis is used in the policy debate over whether raising excise taxes would meaningfully curb illicit trade or instead affect pricing and consumption.
