Oil market strategist Jeff Currie argues that the current crisis is better reflected in refined fuel prices, particularly diesel, rather than in crude benchmarks. In an interview referenced by outlets, he says Brent around $90 per barrel looks “almost civilized,” but that refined products people buy are trading at much higher levels.
Currie points to European diesel trading near $170 per barrel during the discussion, compared with crude values around the mid-$80s to low-$90s range. He says the historical link between crude and refined-product prices has weakened. He attributes part of the divergence to disruptions affecting supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, after an influx of crude supplies in late June and early July that leaves “trapped” volumes, alongside lower refinery runs—reported as occurring after China cuts refinery activity.
Some outlets frame the issue as a downstream shortage rather than a pure crude shortfall, arguing that demand and available product supply remain tight even if crude prices soften. They also cite inflation impacts, including higher gasoline and diesel prices year over year, and note that dislocation may narrow if refiners increase throughput in response to strong margins.
