An economist who studies financial crises says the United States faces recession risk linked to high leverage, with the downturn potentially arriving by the end of the year. The prediction centers on vulnerabilities in parts of the financial system that, in his view, can amplify stresses and spill into broader economic activity.
The warning is attributed to Tuomas Malinen, a professor focused on how leverage affects financial crises. Across the available reports, the main common thread is the causation mechanism: extreme leverage is seen as a factor that can help trigger or accelerate a recession. Coverage differs in emphasis and timing language, with outlets framing the risk as potentially culminating by year-end, rather than as a longer-term, gradual slowdown.
The reporting also reflects that the comments are a forecast from an academic rather than an official government or central bank projection. No additional corroborating data or policy actions are described in the excerpts provided, so the claims are presented as analytical assessment rather than confirmed event outcomes.
