India is in the middle of its summer monsoon season, and multiple reports warn that a very strong El Niño event could make conditions drier overall while increasing the risk of severe weather. One outlet describes “super El Niño” as a scenario in which rainfall totals tend to drop, even as downpours become more intense on particular days.
That pattern helps explain a reported “paradox” during the current season: some regions receive less monsoon rain than usual but still experience serious flooding and landslides. In Kerala, for example, devastating floods are reported to have occurred even though overall monsoon rainfall remains below average. The combined emphasis across sources is on rainfall shifting toward fewer but more extreme bursts, rather than consistently wet conditions.
While the exact timing and regional impacts can vary, both sources frame El Niño as a driver that can reduce average rainfall while raising the likelihood that storms produce damaging outcomes. That means drought risk and disaster risk can increase at the same time, depending on where and when intense rainfall occurs.
