A Samsung Electronics executive adviser says China’s rapid growth in semiconductor manufacturing could reduce the momentum of an AI-driven “super cycle” in memory chips later in the decade. Speaking at a forum hosted by the National Academy of Engineering of Korea, Kyung Kye-hyun said South Korea’s memory chip industry is performing very strongly this year and that some forecasts point to further improvement next year. However, he urged caution for 2027 and especially 2028.
Kyung identified China’s aggressive capacity expansion as a key risk. He said Chinese chipmakers already account for about 20% of the NAND flash market and could raise their DRAM share to above 10%, supported by firms including ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). He added that Chinese companies plan to increase production by about 300,000 wafers over the next three years, which he expects could help them reach roughly 12% to 13% market share.
He also noted that demand conditions may be affected by changes in technology companies’ spending plans, implying that less aggressive memory purchases could coincide with the supply buildout from China.
