Analysis cited by multiple outlets projects a major decline in Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace enrollment this year. PBS NewsHour, ABC News, and MedPage Today report that enrollment could fall by nearly 5 million people, which would represent more than a 20% decrease from current levels. The coverage remaining under the ACA is also described as becoming more expensive for enrollees. PBS NewsHour reports that average deductibles increase by more than $1,000, indicating higher out-of-pocket costs for many consumers. MedPage Today similarly links the expected enrollment drop to rising costs. Mint adds additional detail using estimates based on Wakely Consulting Group data and federal Marketplace reports, warning that “average effectuated enrollment” (people who actually pay premiums and keep active coverage) could decline further into 2026, reaching about 17.5 million from 22.3 million in 2025—an overall drop of roughly 5 million. Across sources, the central point is that higher costs coincide with projections of fewer people maintaining ACA marketplace coverage.