China is unlikely to develop a viable alternative to ASML Holding NV’s leading extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology within the next decade, according to UBS Group AG analysts, who assess that China’s semiconductor tool-making efforts are moving too slowly.
UBS’s view, echoed across outlets, is that China’s lithography program is at an earlier technological stage than ASML was when it achieved key milestones. One report characterizes China’s progress as roughly comparable to ASML’s status around 2004, implying a long lead time before EUV-class capability could be replicated at a scale sufficient for practical semiconductor manufacturing.
Alongside EUV limitations, UBS expects faster progress in other segments. The analysts predict China will reach high-volume manufacturing of immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines within roughly two to five years. This is the equipment category that faces tighter oversight tied to Dutch export licensing rules, even as EUV development remains a longer-term challenge.
The differing angles across sources are mainly about the timeline and technical benchmarks, but both center on the same conclusion: a competitive EUV alternative to ASML is not expected within the next decade.
