Iran’s deteriorating economy, worsened by the impacts of war, is increasingly seen as a factor affecting Tehran’s leverage in potential negotiations with the United States. Multiple reports describe a situation in which financial pressures combine with the costs of recent US- and Israeli-linked attacks, leaving Iranian officials and political elites weighing how firmly they can hold to hardline positions. The Guardian reports that Iran faces inflation, currency devaluation, higher unemployment, and reduced oil revenues, alongside a war-related damages bill. It also cites estimates in Iranian media that the economic damage from US-Israeli attacks could be several times larger than the country’s previous annual budget, and it notes a UN Development Programme projection that millions more people could fall into poverty.
Real Clear Politics similarly characterizes the problem as an escalation of an economic crisis concurrent with the ongoing war context, suggesting the combination is weakening Iran’s position and increasing uncertainty about how hard Iran can afford to push in talks. Overall, the sources converge on the view that worsening economic conditions are reshaping internal calculations around negotiating strategy, though they do not agree on specific policy outcomes.
