A new report says plans to expand Heathrow Airport would make it harder for the UK to meet its carbon reduction goals, with modelling indicating the country is likely to overshoot aviation-related limits.

According to the modelling described by outlets, the UK aviation sector is already forecast to exceed targets set within the seventh carbon budget, and the additional capacity from a proposed third runway would increase the likelihood that the UK misses earlier limits. The coverage also says experts believe the overshoot could occur before the third runway is completed.

The reporting aligns on the core claim that expansion would worsen the gap between forecast emissions and legally set climate targets, but it focuses on different framings of timing and impact. The Evening Standard highlights the implication for meeting carbon budgets, while the Belfast Telegraph repeats the concern that Heathrow expansion would push the UK further past its stated aviation targets.