The International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol warns that global oil markets may move into a “red zone” by July and into August, driven by thinning supplies ahead of the northern summer travel season. Birol says the market has so far absorbed the energy shock from the Iran war, helped by an earlier surplus that kept inventories higher. However, he adds that oil stocks are now eroding, and that the combination of rising seasonal demand and limited fresh export volumes from the Middle East could tighten supply further.
All accounts cite Birol’s concern that reduced Middle East exports and low or declining reserves could lead to a crunch as demand increases, particularly during summer when travel and transport fuel needs typically rise. The IEA chief also identifies reopening the Strait of Hormuz, “unconditional” and fully, as the single most important step to address the energy disruption linked to the Iran war.
The outlets present the warning as a forward-looking risk assessment, focused on inventory levels, expected demand growth, and the availability of Middle East crude exports in the coming weeks.
