The Leaders Of Scotland, Wales And Northern Ireland Have Pledged To End The UK. How Likely Is It?
SNP leader John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth of Plaid Cymru, and Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Fein pose together to press for self-determination votes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.Irish The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have pledged to work together to end the United Kingdom.For the first time ever, the first ministers of all three countries are the leaders of nationalist parties.SNP leader John Swinney and his Welsh counterpart Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, both want independence for their countries.In Northern Irleland, Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill wants Ireland to be reuinted.All three of them met in Cardiff on Monday to sign a “memorandum of understanding” setting out their aims.It said: “For people watching across these islands – for people watching around the world – there could be no clearer sign that Westminster’s time is coming to an end.”So how likely are they to see their political wishes come true?ScotlandUnlike in Wales and Ireland, the question of whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom has already been put to the people.In 2014, Scots voted by 55% to 45% to remain part of the UK in a fiercely-contested referendum.It took place because the then prime minister, David Cameron, agreed to temporarily transfer the power to organise such a referendum from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament.At the time, the then SNP leader and Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, described it as a “once in a generation” event.Since then however, successive SNP leaders have demanded a second referendum, and every time it has been refused by the PM of the day.Opinion polls continue to show that the people of Scotland are evenly split on whether their country should be independent.Speaking in cardiff, John Swinney said it was “crystal clear” that there should be a referendum during the current Holyrood term, which ends in 2031.However, there appears to be little appetite in Scotland for a re-run of the 2014 vote in the near future, meaning the prospect of independence is likely off the table for the next decade at least.WalesLast May, voters in Wales elected a Plaid Cymru government for the first time in the devolution era, which began in 1999.Indeed, it was the first time in over a century that Wales had rejected the Labour Party.Although Plaid Cymru are committed to Welsh independence, the most recent opinion poll showed that just 32% of the country would currently vote to leave the UK, compared to 68% who are happy with the status quo.However, the same poll, by Survation, showed that independence has majority support among Welsh under-45s.That suggests that while a referendum on the subject is not on the agenda right now, it could be at some point in the future.In the meantime, Plaid Cymru is committee to demanding more powers be devolved from Westminster to the Welsh Assembly.Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “While Wales and Scotland are on different constitutional journeys, we both share a commitment to strong, accountable devolved government, and to a relationship between the governments of these islands built on trust and mutual respect.“We share a belief that our people should decide their own future, and that the union isn’t working fairly for either nation.”Northern IrelandThe question of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland becoming one unified country for the first time in more than a century was thrown into sharp focus at the weekend by none other than Donald Trump.Speaking during a visit to Ireland, the US president said he “would love to see” it happen, adding: “It’s going to happen eventually.”His comments sparked an angry backlash from many of Trump’s supporters, including Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.However, they were welcomed by supporters of reunification, including Michelle O’Neill.She said: “I think the comments from the president of the United States very much reflect the fact that the unity debate is very much alive, and people are engaged in it, not just at home, but obviously now internationally as well.“I think that tells us where we’re at with where the thinking is around: what is the big prize here for our people? And the big prize here is unification.“It is the end of partition and it is that new beginning in a new Ireland.”However, just as in Scotland and Wales, there is little prospect of Irish unity any time soon.Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the Troubles in 1998, a so-called “border poll” can only happen if the Northern Ireland Secretary believes there is majority support for one.But the most recent opinion poll, in May, showed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK stands at 58% to 42% in favour.So What Does It All Mean?While it is doubtlessly significant that the largest parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all nationalist, it does not necessarily follow that the break up of the United Kingdom is inevitable.The gathering in Cardiff of Swinney, ap Iorwerth and O’Neill, and their memorandum of understanding, was a good PR stunt, but is unlikely to shift the constitutional debate in any of their countries.While Scotland’s first minister declaration that Andy Burnham will be the last prime minister of the UK was a neat soundbite, there is a vanishingly small chance of it actually becoming true.Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.Related...Angela Rayner Hits Back At Donald Trump Over United Ireland CommentsBrian Cox Accuses 'Idiot' Donald Trump Of 'Talking B*****ks' Over Scottish IndependenceSNP Could Lose MPs Next Year And Still Demand Independence Negotiations With UK Government
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