Bernstein projects that global prediction markets will reach about $10 trillion in annual volume by 2035. The estimate reflects growth in markets beyond their current scale, driven by broader participation and the increasing use of prediction markets for financial purposes.
In its updated view, Bernstein links the expected expansion to the migration of capital from non-financial areas—such as sports—toward financial assets. Decrypt reports that Bernstein’s outlook represents a sharp revision upward, with a prior forecast calling for $1 trillion by 2030 made only a few months earlier. This suggests Bernstein expects faster-than-previously estimated adoption.
Across the two sources, the central point is the same: Bernstein substantially increases its long-term prediction market volume target to $10 trillion by 2035. The differing emphasis is mainly on the magnitude of the update and the drivers cited for the shift, rather than on any disagreement about the headline projection.
