Multiple outlets report that this year’s El Niño and record global heat could cause a further 451,000 heat-related deaths worldwide by the end of February, according to a research assessment cited by news organizations.
The Climate Impact Lab, based at the University of Chicago, links the potential toll to widespread heat stress and related hazards expected to intensify during the event. Several reports say the estimate focuses on the period from June through the end of February and describes the heaviest burden falling on less affluent countries and populations already facing constraints such as food insecurity and high energy costs.
Outlets also note broader contributing conditions. Some mention severe droughts, wildfires, and shrinking water supplies that can accompany El Niño, increasing risks beyond heat alone. Others emphasize the interaction with climate change and energy and food pressures, while one report references geopolitical fallout described as part of the background conditions affecting vulnerable regions. Despite differences in emphasis, the central figure and timeframe are consistent across coverage.
