Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that this year’s “super El Niño” could lead to up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide. The estimate covers the six months running to February 2027, when extreme heat is expected to affect populations and health outcomes.
The report says the number of extremely hot days is likely to increase by about 44% compared with normal years. Outlets also highlight that some countries may face sharper impacts, including Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan. While the figures are calculated for a defined six-month window, the researchers warn that heat-related harm could persist beyond the period studied, potentially extending the total toll.
Overall, the coverage draws on the same modeling effort and focuses on predicted mortality and heat increases. Differences mainly appear in how prominently each outlet mentions specific countries or the possibility that effects last longer than the timeframe analyzed, rather than on the core forecast itself.
