The OECD projects global economic growth will rise to 2.9% in 2026, compared with 2.8% forecast in June. The organisation links the resilience to an expected boost from an AI-driven economic upswing, even as broader conditions remain challenging.
At the same time, the OECD warns that the outlook weakens into 2027. It forecasts growth of about 3.0% in 2027, down from 3.1% in the June update, citing a commodity price shock associated with conflict-related developments in the Middle East. The energy impact is described as a drag that offsets some of the earlier support from AI-related activity.
Together, the reports present a near-term improvement for 2026, paired with a less favorable trajectory for 2027, where energy and commodity pressures play a larger role. The outlets differ mainly in emphasis: one focuses on AI as a temporary offset to energy shocks, while the other highlights the revised 2027 slowdown tied to Middle East-related commodity price movements.
