Pagasa says a very strong El Niño is likely to develop between September and December 2026 and may persist until the first half of 2027. PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis cites climate model projections and ongoing evaluations indicating the phenomenon strengthens to a “very strong” level during that period.
The two reports align on the expected timeline, including when El Niño begins and when it is forecast to peak or remain active. One outlet emphasizes that El Niño is already developing and could continue through early 2027, while another focuses on the expectation that it begins next month and intensifies by the first half of 2027. Both attribute the outlook to PAGASA’s monitoring and prediction work.
While the articles do not detail impacts, they present the same core message: PAGASA forecasts a very strong El Niño lasting into the first half of 2027, with development beginning between September and December 2026.
