Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win significantly fewer seats than both the Labour Party and the Conservatives in an election held now, according to a new YouGov MRP poll. The study forecasts Reform winning 123 MPs.
The poll also suggests the next parliament is likely to be hung, meaning no single party would command an outright majority. One year earlier, a similar YouGov poll had projected a much higher outcome for Reform, with a forecast of 311 MPs, indicating a marked change in the party’s seat share over that period.
Both outlets describe this as a major setback for Farage, but they focus on different implications: one highlights Reform’s fall from being projected first to third, while the other emphasizes the reduced seat total compared with Labour and the Conservatives.
