The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) assesses that El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen and could become “very strong” by late 2026, continuing into the 2026–27 winter. The warning is based on a survey of 22 forecast models.
According to the IRI update cited by outlets, 22 models are evaluated, including 13 dynamical and nine statistical forecasts, and all 22 project “very strong” El Niño conditions in the relevant period. Indian experts discussed by The Economic Times say the development would increase the likelihood of climate impacts for India. While the sources agree on the forecast strength and timing, they emphasize different implications: the IRI framing focuses on forecast outcomes across models, while India-focused commentary highlights elevated risk for regional weather and related effects.
Overall, outlets converge on the same core message: the probability of an unusually strong El Niño rises over the 2026–27 season, warranting attention to potential downstream impacts.
