Bank of America Securities projects that the Reserve Bank of India will raise its policy repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points by the first half of 2027. The firm expects an initial 25 bps hike at the RBI’s October 7 monetary policy meeting. It has moved the start of its anticipated hiking cycle to October rather than December, with a projected terminal repo rate of 6.25%.
BofA links the forecast to concerns over economic growth and inflation. The firm also notes that the path of rate increases is not fixed and could change if the economy slows, which may affect how the RBI spaces or calibrates future decisions. Across the outlets, the core expectation is the timing of the first hike (October 7) and the overall magnitude (100 bps through H1 2027).
