CFTC investigates Adam Kinzinger’s Kalshi trades tied to Biden pardons

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched an investigation into former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) over Kalshi trades related to pardons issued by former President Biden. The prediction market account — which was allegedly linked to the former lawmaker — made transactions between December 2024 and January 2025 concerning whether Kinzinger would receive a pardon,...

Feds Investigate Kinzinger Over Alleged Kalshi Bets On Own Pardon Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger is reportedly under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over prediction-market trades tied to an unusually personal event: whether President Joe Biden would pardon him. According to Politico, citing three people familiar with the matter, the CFTC has been examining trades made by a Kalshi account linked to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025. Kalshi is also reviewing the transactions. Kinzinger confirmed that he made the trades, telling Politico that he wagered on both whether he personally would receive a presidential pardon and whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. According to screenshots Kinzinger provided to the outlet, he made $823 on the trades. He said he placed roughly 25 trades during the period and mostly lost money.  And of course, he denies having any inside information - telling the outlet "I was not a congressman or candidate, and had been out of office for two years, and had no inside information," and claiming that he never discussed a potential pardon with anyone at or near the White House and believed his wagers complied with Kalshi's rules at the time. What Kalshi's Rules Said A version of Kalshi's rulebook filed with the CFTC in November 2024 - before the reported trades - prohibited users from trading when they possessed material nonpublic information about an event or had the ability to influence its outcome. Kinzinger says he had neither. Interestingly, on Jan. 6, 2025, while Biden's possible preemptive pardons were being publicly debated, CNN's Anderson Cooper asked Kinzinger whether Biden should pardon members of the Jan. 6 committee, including himself. "No. I don't want it," he replied, adding "As soon as you take a pardon, it looks like you are guilty of something," Kinzinger said. Two weeks later, Biden pardoned Kinzinger along with the other members and staff of the House Jan. 6 committee and police officers who testified before it. The Justice Department describes the action as a "full and unconditional pardon" covering potential federal offenses arising from or related to the committee's activities. Granted: we don't know exactly when each Kinzinger trade occurred, whether he held a position when he made his CNN comments, or which side of the pardon contract he was taking at any particular point. So the public statement and the trading activity cannot, based on what is currently known, be treated as evidence of market manipulation. In February, the CFTC warned that prediction-market activity involving improperly obtained confidential information or a trader's influence over an event can trigger federal antifraud and anti-manipulation rules. The agency highlighted one case involving a political candidate trading on his own candidacy and another involving a person affiliated with a YouTube channel who allegedly knew the contents of videos before they were published. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 11:20

The former congressman says he made $823 on the trades, had no inside information, and had checked the platform's rules first.