Australia could face a fuel price surge in July if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, according to analysts cited by multiple outlets. The potential jump is linked to ongoing concerns about disruptions in oil shipping routes in the Middle East, which can affect global fuel and refining supply. The timing is critical because a temporary federal cut to fuel excise is set to end, removing a policy measure that has been helping limit pump-price impacts. With the excise cut due to lapse, any additional pressure from reduced or constrained oil supply could flow through to domestic fuel costs. The articles also point to the broader geopolitical outlook, focusing on whether the United States and Iran reach a peace-related agreement that would ease tensions and restore shipping through the strait. In the absence of such an outcome, forecasts suggest the combination of higher underlying energy costs and the end of excise relief could produce another notable fuel-price shock for Australian consumers.