Tigray rebels pull back from Mekelle as Ethiopia’s government forces advance

Fighting erupted on September 23 in northern Ethiopia as the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks into neighbouring states, raising fears of a return to the devastating 2020-2022 civil war.

Tigray rebels were abandoning their regional capital in northern Ethiopia on Saturday, a local journalist and residents told AFP, as pro-government forces advanced on the city. Fighting erupted on September 23 in northern Ethiopia as the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks into neighbouring states, raising fears of a return to the devastating 2020-2022 civil war. But federal forces and pro-government militias have pushed them back in recent days and they were heading north towards the regional capital, Mekelle. “TPLF militants and leaders are leaving Mekelle,” the journalist said, adding that federal forces had not yet been seen inside the city. He said government offices and police stations had been left without security personnel. “I am concerned that government and public property could be exposed to looting because there are no security forces in the city,” a local resident told AFP. “Lawlessness could spread in the city, and I am also afraid for my life. I want us to quickly return to law and order,” added another resident. The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray, and kicked out a government-appointed administration earlier this year. In a video message on Thursday, its leader Debretsion Gebremichael implied the TPLF would continue guerrilla-style attacks as they did when Mekelle fell to government forces in 2020 during the early stages of the last war. Their insurgent campaign ultimately led to the TPLF retaking the city in mid-2021. “We operate under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever we choose,” Debretsion said. Regional tensions The conflict has triggered a breakdown in Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea and Egypt, who it accuses of supporting the rebels. Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and shut its embassy in Asmara on Thursday, while Eritrea responded that it would “sever all diplomatic ties”. Eritrea accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. The TPLF’s Debretsion said in his video message that “the war is regional and it is a war to control the Red Sea”. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat without explanation, prompting a reciprocal move by Cairo. Counter-offensive The rebels initially made advances in neighbouring Afar and Amhara states, working alongside local militias. But they were pushed back this week, and the government launched a counter-offensive into Tigrayan territory along three axes towards Mekelle, according to the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute think tank. There were reports that Mekelle’s airport, on the southern approach to the city, had fallen to a pro-government militia on Friday. But social media accounts are difficult to verify. Media access is heavily restricted and there have been significant communications blackouts. Earlier, a humanitarian source told AFP on condition of anonymity that the TPLF had been entirely pushed out of Afar. The TPLF ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when they were marginalised with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who hails from the Oromia region. The tensions led to a civil war from 2020 to 2022 — one of the deadliest in the world in recent times — that left more than 600,000 dead, according to the African Union. The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, maintained an uneasy calm until last year, but was never fully implemented.

Rebels from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia were abandoning their regional capital of Mekkele in the north of the country on Saturday, according to local reports. The TPLF has been fighting against federal forces and pro-government militias since September 23 and launching attacks into neighbouring states, raising fears of an all-out civil war similar to that of 2020-2022.