US households that rely on heating oil are set to face higher winter costs, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting average bills rising 21% compared with last winter. The EIA’s outlook covers the November-to-March period and estimates average expenditures of about $2,115.

Outlets attribute the increase largely to tighter distillate supplies and higher prices, pointing to a broader strain in the global diesel market that affects heating oil. CNBC adds that the impact is likely to be most pronounced for homes in the Northeast, where heating oil dependence is higher. Other reporting frames the rise as the result of both reduced availability of distillate fuels and substantial price increases during the winter heating season, with the EIA forecasting prices up 34% on average.

While the outlets share the same core EIA figures—an expected 21% increase in bills—they differ slightly in emphasis, with some focusing on supply tightness and others on regional exposure.