The IMF warns that a prolonged war in the Middle East, along with renewed disruptions to energy production, shipping routes and critical infrastructure, poses the biggest risk to economies across the Middle East and Central Asia. IMF director Jihad Azour says the main threat is continued disruption to key economic lifelines, which can reduce trade, energy supply and investment activity.

The IMF also says the economic impact is uneven across the region. Countries directly affected by the conflict face the most severe pressure, while others experience a less direct shock. Different outlets focus on the same core message: the risk grows if disruptions persist or expand, particularly through effects on energy and logistics networks.