IMD forecasts 2026 monsoon rainfall at 90% of long-period average

The India Meteorological Department has revised its monsoon forecast, saying the country is likely to receive 90% of the long-period average rainfall this season. While Northeast India is expected to witness normal rainfall, most other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.

The Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long period average this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall, the weather office said. The India Meteorological Department made the observations in its second forecast for the Southwest monsoon. In its first forecast on April 13, the weather office had said that India might witness 92 per cent of long period average (LPA) rainfall this monsoon season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday retained its forecast for below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the weather office warning that the El Nino weather pattern is likely to develop during June and July.The weather watchdog said monsoon rainfall this year is expected to be at 90% of the long-term average, while rainfall in June is likely to be around 92% of the long-term average.The IMD said neutral ENSO conditions over the equatorial Pacific are now transitioning towards El Nino, with a 92% probability of El Nino conditions prevailing during the 2026 monsoon season. Most global climate models indicate that the weather pattern is likely to strengthen as the season progresses.Also Read: Southwest monsoon further advances in Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Bay of Bengal, says IMD According to the IMD’s forecast, June is expected to witness weak El Nino conditions, while July and August could see weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions. By September, the weather office expects El Nino to intensify into a moderate-to-strong phase.The weather office also warned that the monsoon core zone, which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions across central and northwest India, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). Northwest India is expected to receive rainfall below 92% of the LPA, while central India and the southern peninsula are also likely to see below-normal rains. Only northeast India is forecast to receive normal rainfall, in the range of 94-106% of the long-period average.Also Read: El Nino, Strait of Hormuz risks may fuel fresh global food inflation surge, says Citi Research Report The IMD’s probability forecast showed that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country during the June-September monsoon season. However, some areas in northwest India, parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central India and isolated pockets in the northeast could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.The forecast comes at a time when concerns are rising over the impact of weaker rains on farm output and food prices, further adding to already rising inflation in India amid the ongoing Iran-US war.El Nino conditions, which are associated with lower rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are expected to emerge in the coming weeks, the weather office said. The phenomenon typically leads to hotter temperatures and uneven rainfall distribution across several parts of the country.A below-normal monsoon could put pressure on agricultural production and may increase risks of higher food inflation later in the year. India’s farm sector remains heavily dependent on seasonal rains as a large part of cultivated land still lacks irrigation coverage.The monsoon usually begins over Kerala in June and accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The June-September rainy season is critical for kharif crop sowing, reservoir replenishment and rural consumption.