International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global airline profits will sharply decline in 2026, with net profits expected to be about halved compared with 2025. Multiple reports cite a projection of roughly $23 billion in combined net profit for 2026, down from about $45 billion in 2025, alongside a weakened profit margin. Several outlets link the outlook to two main pressures: war-related disruptions in the Middle East and a rise in jet fuel costs. One report notes that the fuel bill could reach around $350 billion in 2026, while another highlights that margins would fall to near the weakest levels seen in the post-COVID period.
The articles also describe broader demand and revenue resilience, with passenger demand expected to remain strong and revenues projected to reach record levels in 2026; however, higher operating costs are expected to reduce profitability per passenger and overall net earnings. In sum, the different outlets present a consistent theme: despite continued passenger demand, geopolitical instability and fuel-price increases are expected to squeeze airline margins and halve industry profits in 2026.
